"The naked Khalifite" or "The Wonders of Probability Theory"

(A lesson in contextualized probability theory)

Suppose some Khalifite owns the following sets of clothing.

15 shirts
6 pairs of pants
10 ties
3 jackets
20 pairs of socks
15 undershirts
15 underpants
5 pairs of shoes
2 hats
3 pairs of glasses

Are these unreasonable numbers? I don't think so.

Now, suppose any of these shirts he wears with equal probability = 1/15 any shoes with equal probability = 1/5 etc.

Then obviously the probability that he will wear any of the possible combinations consisting of one of the shirts, one pair of pants, one tie, .... will be 1/15 * 1/6 * 1/10 * ... 1/5 * 1/2 * 1/3 = 0.000000002.

Now, this calculation shows the following: Should we ever meet this fictitious Khalifite there is actually only this minute chance with the probability given above that he is wearing any of his possible outfits. Think of any of the outfits, the probability that he will wear it when you meet him is basically zero. And since the probability of finding him clothed in "whatever arbitrary outfit" is nearly zero, this obviously means he is "basically naked".

Or in other words: Khalifites are wearing usually the same name brand sold as the "Emperor's new clothes".


Should you ever meet a Khalifite and he is actually wearing clothes, then you are witnessing a miracle.

The moral of the story? If you cannot find the error in this little exposition, then probably you shouldn't trust your own probability calculations either.

Since there are no Khalifites [followers of R.K.] as is confirmed by the "Qur'an only" group but only "Khalifites" [admirers of the same man's methods] nobody needs to imagine as if this would apply to him and there is no need to be offended.

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